A potentially historic “Super” El Niño is currently developing in the Pacific Ocean. The latest World Meteorological Organisation update suggests a high probability of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August 2026. According to the forecasts, this event could be very similar to the 1876–78 El Niño in terms of intensity, the strongest on record, which led to severe droughts and widespread famines across several affected regions.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that affects the climate by increasing the temperature of the surface layer of the tropical Pacific Ocean along the equator.
This phenomenon occurs every 2 to 7 years, and causes a disruption of weather patterns globally. Despite having varying levels of intensity from year to year, El Niño has a widespread climate effect as it is commonly associated with warmer-than-average temperatures across the globe. Southeast Asian countries often suffer from decreased rainfall and droughts, whereas North and South American regions tend to have heavy rainfall that causes floods and landslides.
What Happens When a Natural Cycle Meets a Warming Planet
Australia and Indonesia have drier climates that affect the availability of water resources and agriculture. In recent years, researchers have become increasingly concerned about the direct link of El Niño to the rapid change in climate. Though a natural phenomenon, human-induced climate change may have an inordinate impact on El Niño. For instance, if an El Niño event occurs during a period of already high global temperatures, it can further contribute to record-breaking heat, as experienced in 2026.
Climatologists point out that this rapidly growing phenomenon is causing unprecedented warming of the planet and putting the year among the hottest years ever recorded, while 2027 may see even higher temperatures.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.” warns UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his WMO press release.
To conclude, the emergence of El Niño serves as an alarming indicator that climate-related catastrophes are no longer distant possibilities. The scale of its impact on weather conditions highlights the urgent need for stronger mitigation measures and preparedness for the future. Ignoring these signals could leave communities increasingly exposed to possible climate extremes, making them more vulnerable to such future events.



